Minding Our Future: Investing in Healthy Infants and Toddlers (DMC Issue Guide)

Minding Our Future: Investing in Healthy Infants and Toddlers is an issue guide created by the David Mathews Center for Civic Life for our Alabama Issues Forums 2014 – 2015 series. The issue guide provides a brief overview on the importance of early childhood development, outlininDMC_MindingFutureg three approaches towards investing in healthy infants and toddlers across the state of Alabama. The David Mathews Center—a non-profit, non-partisan organization—does not advocate a particular solution to this issue, but rather seeks to provide a framework for Alabamians to thoughtfully examine multiple approaches, weigh costs and consequences, and work through tensions and tradeoffs among different courses of action.

The issue guide’s introductory essay, authored by Dr. Ellen Abell, Associate Professor and Cooperative Extension Specialist at Auburn University, highlights the importance of healthy infant and toddler development:

“Research tells us that the structure of babies’ brains is built in the first three years. During this time, the brain creates 700 neural connections each second, a rate faster than at any other time of life. These simple, beginning connections develop into stronger, more complex connections if babies are exposed to a variety of experiences appropriate for their stages of development… [E]arly adverse experiences lead to poorer learning outcomes, reduced immune system function, and a decreased ability to manage basic levels of stress… Differences in early childhood experiences contribute greatly to the growing gaps in children’s learning and achievement.”

The issue guide outlines three possible approaches to addressing the issue:

Approach One: “Develop Capable and Caring Parents, Guardians, and Caregivers”
During their first three years of life, children are completely dependent on parents, guardians, and caregivers. We must ensure that infants and toddlers receive the support that they need during these important years. Although programs and services aimed at helping children and improving community are important, we need to focus additional time and energy on strengthening the capabilities of the individuals who are responsible for raising and caring for young children… We also must prepare future parents and guardians for their upcoming responsibilities.

Approach Two: “Create Healthy and Thriving Communities”
Communities directly impact infants and toddlers. If we want to “mind our future,” then we must work to foster safe and healthy communities that support young children and their families. Parents and guardians may want to provide children with everything that they need, but unsupportive neighborhoods and workplaces that increase stress may reduce their abilities to do so. We must create additional family resource centers, encourage workplace policies that embrace families, and organize community events that focus on young children and parents.

Approach Three: “Provide Access to Comprehensive High Quality Services for All Children”
If we want to provide children with a strong foundation during their first three years of life, then we must offer wide access to necessary support services. Alabamians must make genuine commitments to invest in education, healthcare, and nutrition for all infants and toddlers; otherwise, growing children may face challenges that will impact them for the rest of their lives. Parents, guardians, caregivers, and community groups cannot provide everything that children need during their first three years – some services and support must be provided by institutions and agencies. Also, access to and use of existing services may be limited due to lack of awareness and understanding.

More About DMC Issue Guides
David Mathews Center issue guides are named and framed by Alabamians for Alabama Issues Forums (AIF) during a biennial “Citizens’ Congress” and follow-up workshops. Alabama Issues Forums is a David Mathews Center signature program designed to bring Alabamians together to deliberate and take community action on an issue of public concern. Digital copies of all AIF issue guides, and accompanying post-forum questionnaires, are available for free download at http://mathewscenter.org/resources/

For further information about the Mathews Center, Alabama Issues Forums, or this publication, please visit http://mathewscenter.org/

Resource Link: http://mathewscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Minding-Our-Future-singlepages.pdf

This resource was submitted by Cristin Foster, the Executive Director at David Mathews Center for Civic Life, via the Add-a-Resource form.

A New Land: What Kind of Government Should We Have? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published the Issue Guide, A New Land: What Kind of Government Should We Have?, in 2015. This guide is to help facilitate deliberation the current and future state of the US union.

From the guide…

It is the spring of 1787. We are now iNIFI_NewLandn a critical period. Our new republic is unstable and the liberty we won just four years ago is threatened. We’ve lost the unity inspired by our fight against Britain. Trade is difficult and our physical safety is uncertain. There are conflicts within and threats from without.

The current state of affairs has sparked conversations in pubs and shops, town squares and farmyards. Everywhere, people are asking the same questions: What should we do? How will we survive? How can our hard-won liberty be sustained? The questions boil down to this: What kind of government should we have?

This historic decisions issue guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: “Strengthen the Current Partnership Among Equals”
The Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union need to be amended. The current one-vote-per-state Confederation Congress assures that we are a union of equal members, but the current central government lacks the power to raise funds or make binding decisions. It needs to have the power to hold states accountable without impinging on their rights. We must figure out a workable balance that gives the central government more power and yet still respects each state’s autonomy.

Option Two: “Create a Strong Central Government”
To maintain our independence, we must ensure our stability. We need a strong central government to protect our liberty. Too much freedom at either the state or the personal level can be destructive. A republican form of federal government, with proportional representation from all of the states, guarantees that individual citizens will still have a say. A stronger central government in a new federal union of the states will also have the authority to safeguard our economic stability and physical security.

Option Three: “Let States Govern Themselves”
Now that we have our liberty, we should dissolve the Confederation and let the states govern themselves as independent republics. Local governance works best. We are too economically, geographically, and culturally diverse to form one nation. Each state has its own traditions of self-governance, some going back a century or more. Each has its own way of determining citizenship. We’ve proven we can successfully unite in the face of a common threat, and we can do it again if need be.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides.

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/historic-decisions-new-land

America’s Energy Future: How Can We Take Charge? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published the Issue Guide, America’s Energy Future: How Can We Take Charge?, in January 2015. This Issue Guide puts forth three options for deliberation of how America can address its energy consumption and how to deal with it in the future.   

NIFI_USenergyFrom the guide…

Americans depend on easy access to energy. Most of us take it for granted that we will be able to light up a room with the flick of a switch, adjust the temperature of our homes at will, and climb into our cars every morning to go to work, often at distant sites.

We use more energy than any other country. Americans make up only 4.5 percent of the world’s population, yet we consume about 20 percent of the world’s energy production. Collectively, we drive more, heat more, air condition more, and plug in more electronic devices than anyone else. We use 22 percent of the oil consumed in the world each day.

Worldwide energy use is on the upswing as well, and is projected to keep increasing, as rapidly developing countries, such as China, India, and Brazil, become bigger players in the worldwide market for energy supplies, especially oil. And— sooner or later—the world’s available supply of oil will run out.

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: “Produce the Energy We Need to Maintain Our Way of Life”
We need to control our own sources of energy so that we do not have to depend on other, possibly unfriendly, countries for our supplies. We have abundant sources of energy in this country and off its shores. We should develop and use them.

Option Two: “Put More Renewables and Clean Energy Sources into the Mix”
Not only is our lavish use of fossil fuels causing untold damage to the environment, but someday we will run out of oil, coal, and natural gas. We need to make the switch to renewable sources of energy, such as wind and sun, as soon as possible.

Option Three: “Find Ways to Use Less Energy”
The most practical way to deal with our current energy problems in not to produce more energy but to use less of it, and to do more with the energy we do use. This will involve both stricter government regulations and changes in our individual lifestyles.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides.

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/americas-energy-future

How Can We Reduce Costs and Still Get the Care We Need? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published the Issue Guide, How Can We Reduce Costs and Still Get the Care We Need?, in April 2015. This guide is to help facilitate deliberation on the issues around the entire US healthcare system.

NIFI_HealthcareCostsFrom the guide…

Americans have good reason to worry about the high costs of health care. Medical bills are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy. Nationally, health care spending threatens the nation’s long-term solvency. We urgently need to find ways to make our health care system financially sustainable.

Health Care: How Can We Reduce Costs and Still Get the Care we Need? clarifies this difficult challenge and offers three options to address issues through changes in the way hospitals and doctors function, end of life care, unhealthy lifestyles, smoking habits, employee wellness, health insurance, childbirth procedures, the pharmaceutical industry and reforms in Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act. It’s a balanced, open-minded look at the entire healthcare system—one that moves the discussion beyond the current political debate.

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: “As a Nation and as Individuals We Need to Live within Our Means”
The problem is we spend more than any other developed country on health care without questioning whether more is always better. Reining in spending is a matter of tightening our belts and sticking to a budget even if it means sacrifice.

Option Two: “Make Health Care More Transparent, Accountable, and Efficient”
The biggest driver of health care spending is the design of the US health care system- or rather the lack of design. The system needs regulation or incentives, or both, to instill financial discipline and end greed and abuse.

Option Three: “Take Responsibility for Lowering Health Care Costs by Focusing on Wellness”
Our own unhealthy behaviors- smoking, excessive drinking, drug abuse, lack of exercise, and more- are driving up health care costs. Collective and individual efforts in improve healthy behaviors are the key to lowering costs.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides.

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/health-care

Common Ground for Action

Common Ground for Action is an online platform for deliberation sponsored by the Kettering Foundation starting in 2013, who partnered with Conteneo, a creator of serious decision-making games, to co-develop the forum. Kettering and Conteneo collaborated from scratch to create a unique online forum that engaged participants and produced an authentic deliberation space, which was then tested through the National Issues Forums (NIF) network.

NIFI_Common GroundFrom NIFI…

Common Ground for Action forums are the online version of traditional in-person National Issues Forums. Common Ground for Action is a simple but sophisticated platform that runs in any browser—no technical mumbo jumbo!

In CGA, small groups are able to learn more about the tensions in an issue, examine options for dealing with the problem, weigh tradeoffs, and find common ground just like in in-person National Issues Forums, but with visuals that let you actually see the shape of your conversation as it evolves.

From Kettering…

The online forum has five basic areas:

1. Lobby: Participants get introduced to the platform, other participants, moderator
2. Forum Home: Participants get introduced to the issue, other participants’ personal stakes
3. Baseline: Participants register a personal baseline with regard to the actions
4. Examination of Options: for each option, participants do:
* a personal sense-making and evaluation of the actions and tradeoffs within an option
* then discuss the option similarly to an in-person forum
5. Common Ground Reflection: Participants reflect upon common ground from across the options and see the difference their deliberation has made.

Check out this short video about how to participate in Common Ground for Action here.

More about Kettering Foundation
The Kettering Foundation is a nonprofit operating foundation rooted in the American tradition of cooperative research. Kettering’s primary research question is, what does it take to make democracy work as it should? Kettering’s research is distinctive because it is conducted from the perspective of citizens and focuses on what people can do collectively to address problems affecting their lives, their communities, and their nation. Follow on Twitter: @KetteringFdn.

More about the National Issues Forums Institute
The institute’s central activity is to publish and distribute an ongoing series of Issue Guides and videos that prepare you for thoughtful discussion of many of today’s thorniest problems. Moderators and conveners find our resources indispensable in organizing, leading and advertising their forums for public deliberation. We also provide guidelines for those who wish to frame their own issues. To keep the network and policymakers current, we publish reports about forum lesson plans, activities, and outcomes so groups can learn from one another. Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

More about Conteneo
Our team of scientists, academics and practitioners use the science of serious games to unlock  engagement for our clients. Rooted in a range of disciplines (from cognitive science and evolutionary psychology to game theory), our proprietary software and services enable leading organizations to quickly and easily adapt to market and operational changes–on any scale. Follow on Twitter: @ConteneoInc

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/common-ground-action

Alcohol in America: What Can We Do about Excessive Drinking? (NIFI Issue Guide)

In November 2014, the National Issues Forums Institute published the Issue Guide, Alcohol in America: What Can We Do about Excessive Drinking?  This guide is to help facilitate public deliberation in regards to the problem of alcoholism in America.

From the guide…

Alcohol is a legal beverage, but its misuse hurts people, costs our nation billions of dollars, and makes the public less safe. The question remains: What can we do about excessive alcohol use?”

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

NIF-Alcohol-in-AmericaOption One: “Protect Others from Danger”
Society should do what it takes to protect itself from the negative consequences of drinking behavior.

Option Two: “Help People with Alcohol Problems”
We need to help people reduce their drinking.

Option Three: “Change Society’s Relationship with Alcohol”
This option says that solutions must address the societal attitudes and environments that make heavy drinking widely accepted.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/alcohol-america

America’s Future: What Should Our Budget Priorities Be? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published this Issue Guide (2014), America’s Future: What Should Our Budget Priorities Be?, to provide participants a resource to deliberate national budget issues.

From the guide…

America is slowly coming out of a long recession. Unemployment, after peaking at 10 percent in 2009, has fallen below 8 percent; more new homes are being built, although just gradually. Despite the heavy blow we’ve taken in the last few years, the US economy is very large and still growing…

We have significant resources, but they are finite. What direction should we take?

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: Keep Tightening Our BeltNIF-America's-Future
Though painful, the sequester (mandatory across-the-board budget cuts) showed that we can get by with less. We should continue cutting gradually to bring down the deficits, shrink the national debt, and let the private sector drive the recovery.

Option Two: Invest for the Future
We are making progress on the deficit. We need to make some adjustments to entitlements, but now is not the time to slash programs; it may result in hobbling the recovery. Instead, we should make strategic expenditures and grow the economy, which in turn will shrink the deficit.

Option Three: Tame the Monsters
The steady growth of defense, Social Security, and Medicare/Medicaid are the main drivers consuming the federal budget…Social Security and Medicare, in turn, should be need-based and self-sustaining. We should get away from the whole concept of “entitlement,” which is bankrupting those programs. We also should reform and simplify the tax code.

More about the NIFI issue guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/americas-future

The Changing World of Work: What Should We Ask of Higher Education? (NIFI Issue Guide)

This 11-page Issue Guide from the National Issues Forums Institute, The Changing World of Work: What Should We Ask of Higher Education?, was published January 2015 to help inform participants in deliberation about the current state and future of higher education.

From the guide…

There is a pervasive anxiety in America about the future of higher education. Spiraling costs combined with seismic changes in the American workplace raise questions about whether a bachelor’s degree is still worth the cost. In a recent cover story, Newsweek magazine asked: “Is College a Lousy Investment?” For a growing number of Americans, the answer appears to be yes.

Today’s students accumulate an average of almost $30,000 in debt by the time they graduate. They will go into a job market that looks especially bleak for young people. Many college graduates are unemployed or working minimum-wage jobs. Still more are working in jobs that don’t require a college credential.

Some of the troubles facing new graduates can be attributed to the post-recession economy. But there are larger forces at work that are transforming the nature of employment in America—forces that colleges and universities have been slow to recognize, much less respond to.

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: “Prepare Students for the Job Market”NIF-Changing-World-of-Work
Colleges and universities should tailor their programs to the real needs of employers and direct more of their educational resources toward vocational and pre-professional training.

Option Two: “Educate for Leadership and Change”
Academic institutions should focus on preparing students to become effective citizen leaders—the men and women who will go on to create the jobs of the future, effect change, and build a better society.

Option Three: “Build Strong Communities”
Colleges and universities should harness their power to create jobs, generate business opportunities, provide essential skills, and drive development in their communities and in the region.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/changing-world-work

Over The Edge: What Should We Do When Alcohol and Drug Use Become a Problem to Society? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published the 15-page Issue Guide, Over The Edge: What Should We Do When Alcohol and Drug Use Become a Problem to Society?, in February 2015. The Issue Guide discusses an overview of substance abuse in America and the effect it has had on people and their communities. The guide can be downloaded for free here.

From the guide…

NIFI-OverTheEdgeBy all accounts, America is a nation of substance users. More than two-thirds of us are taking at least one prescription drug, and more than half drink alcohol on a regular basis. Marijuana consumption is on the rise as more states relax their laws on its medicinal and recreational use. But even legal substances, when misused, can result in serious problems. Beyond the human suffering, the abuse of legal and illicit substances is costing the nation more than $400 billion dollars each year due to lost productivity, health problems, and crime.

This guide offers three perspectives to help start the conversation about how we should respond to the problem of substance abuse. While not entirely mutually exclusive, each provides a different lens on the nature of the problem, the kinds of actions that would have the greatest impact, and the drawbacks or consequences of each.

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

Option One: Keep People Safe
Our top priority must be to protect people from the dangers posed by substance abuse, according to this option. Whether the threat comes from sharing the same roads and highways with people under the influence, living in communities under siege by drug trade, or having our families devastated by a child or adult addict, the potential for harm is real. In order to keep people safe, we need to tightly regulate and control the production and use of alcohol and drugs, as well as impose penalties for people who break the rules.

Option Two: Address Conditions that Foster Substance Abuse
This option says we must recognize the critical role society plays regarding how and why people use drugs and alcohol. It is too easy to blame the individual—to say that if a person had just been stronger, smarter, or had more willpower, they would not have become involved in substance use. Instead, we should focus on the broader context and take responsibility for changing the social, cultural, and economic conditions that foster widespread substance use and abuse

Option Three: Uphold Individual Freedom
We must respect people’s freedom while offering them the means to act responsibly, according to this option. Overzealous efforts to control substance use infringe upon our rights, are often ineffective, discourage sick people from seeking treatment, and have led to the incarceration of large numbers of Americans for nonviolent drug offenses. Instead, we must provide the information and treatment options people need to make healthy choices, as well as reform laws that are unduly intrusive or unfair.

NIF-Logo2014More about the NIFI Issue Guides
NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4). All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides.

Follow on Twitter: @NIForums.

 

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/catalog/product/over-edge-issue-guide-downloadable-pdf

Social Security: How Can We Afford It? (NIFI Issue Guide)

The National Issues Forums Institute published Social Security: How Can We Afford It?, a 13-page Issue Guide in December 2014 to offer information for deliberation on the future of social security.

From the guide…

Projections in 2013 showed that the Social Security Trust Fund could run out of money in 2033. Growing federal deficits and a rising national debt have made many wonder whether Social Security will soon become too great a burden on the workers who have to pay for it…

Many Americans are reexamining the principles on which Social Security is based and are thinking anew about the nature of individual responsibility. What does the government owe the elderly? Should saving for retirement be strictly an individual responsibility? Is it fair to require succeeding generations to shoulder the increasing burden of supporting retirees?

The question we must face is this: how can we best provide for Americans’ retirement?

The Issue Guide presents three options for deliberation:

NIF-SocialSecurityOption One: Shore Up and Reaffirm Social Security
Social Security benefits represent a promise made to Americans, symbolizing a shared commitment to one another that is a fundamental value of our country. The program has earned its near-universal support, and the promise should be kept by doing whatever it takes to keep these benefits as they are.

Option Two: End Reliance on Social Security for Retirement
Government has been taking too much responsibility for the well-being of its older citizens, undermining the nation’s traditional emphasis on self-reliance. We should phase-in a privatized system of retirement savings accounts, which could be regulated by the government, but controlled and managed by individuals.

Option Three: Reinvent Retirement and Social Security
It is unrealistic to continue to support a plan that enables people to retire in their early-to-mid-60s when the average life span is now 78. The compact that Social Security represents should be adjusted to take that change into account.

More about the NIFI Issue Guides

NIFI’s Issue Guides introduce participants to several choices or approaches to consider. Rather than conforming to any single public proposal, each choice reflects widely held concerns and principles. Panels of experts review manuscripts to make sure the choices are presented accurately and fairly. By intention, Issue Guides do not identify individuals or organizations with partisan labels, such as Democratic, Republican, conservative, or liberal. The goal is to present ideas in a fresh way that encourages readers to judge them on their merit.

NIF-Logo2014

Issue Guides are generally available in print or PDF download for a small fee ($2 to $4).

All NIFI Issue Guides and associated tools can be accessed at www.nifi.org/en/issue-guides

Resource Link: www.nifi.org/en/issue-guide/social-security-how-can-we-afford-it-updated-edition-2014