Monthly Archives: November 2020

post-election resolution #3: don’t argue on the basis of election counterfactuals

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On Tuesday night, when things looked dimmest for Biden-Harris, I saw plenty of “Bernie would have won” tweets, and also some arguments that the Democrats would gave done better if they had been more moderate on immigration. On the GOP side, too, there will be arguments about whether the party would have performed better if all their candidates were more Trumpian or whether Trump cost them the White House despite strong economic fundamentals.

It is important to argue about: (a) what is valuable and (b) what is politically feasible. The union of those two circles is what we ought to support. People disagree about both questions, and discussion can be helpful.

Our values can influence our estimates of what would win. If you are further left, you may be biased to believe that leftist policies would win–and the same for people all across the spectrum.

However, disciplined political thinkers try to separate the two matters in case what they want may mislead them about what they can win.

It almost never helps to argue with counterfactuals about past elections. The problem with “Bernie would have won” is not that it’s false. It’s unfalsifiable, untestable. It provides no analytic clarity.

I acknowledge that social science often seeks to estimate counterfactuals. For instance, a regression model estimates what would happen to the dependent variable if the independent variable changed from what it actually is. (If we spent more on preventive healthcare, the data may suggest, fewer people would get sick.) This kind of reasoning is essential for thoughtful planning. However, to make counterfactual inferences, we need the right conditions: usually lots of cases, each with many variables, from which we can infer trends. Natural experiments also work nicely. A given election is one ambiguous datapoint that can fit countless theories.

So my resolution is: I will argue about what I value and whether it can win the next election, but not what would have won in 2020. I think that’s a recipe for confusion. In any case, I am not looking forward to that particular form of debate.

post-election resolutions #1 and #2 (less forecasting and less hobbyism)

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Today seems an auspicious occasion to begin posting resolutions for becoming a better person and citizen after the 2020 election.

The first and second resolutions are simple:

  1. Less forecasting, more living in the present. Surveys are valid research tools, but they are particularly hard-pressed to predict future behavior with precision. The polling error that shows up in forecasting sites like FiveThirtyEight reflects the complexity of screening for likely voters–it doesn’t invalidate survey research. But why are we checking FiveThirtyEight in the first place? All the sages teach that we should live in the present or work to change the future. Forecasting violates that advice, but it is almost literally addictive: you get a little dose of pleasure every time a prediction is favorable, and when it isn’t, you can go back for another fix. I hope I can use the methodological limitations of electoral forecasting as a reason to pry myself away from the habit of forecasting everything (COVID-19, the stock market, my own life expectancy).
  2. Less “political hobbyism.” People gave $100 million to Amy McGrath. In many cases, they were doing something to harm Mitch McConnell after he did or said something that made them mad. It didn’t work; he won by 20 points. One hundred million dollars is a lot of money. You could start a new college for that. Part of the problem is a profession–political consultancy–whose interests align poorly with the public interest. Someone made a fortune by fundraising for McGrath. (I wrote an article about this in 1994.) Expressing anger by giving money also has an allure; it’s an easy thing to do after observing something that makes you angry. I actually didn’t donate to Amy McGrath (ironically, I was too aware of the skeptical forecasts for her), but I exhibited other symptoms of political hobbyism in this cycle.

Free Online Professional Development for Civics, Government, and US History

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Are you looking for some free, self-paced professional development? Be sure to check out what the Lou Frey Institute/FJCC offers. These are all FREE courses and can be completed at your own pace.

Our most extensive free course series is the Civics Classroom. This four course series focuses on preparing civics teachers with the pedagogy necessary for good instruction! Be sure to visit the Civics Classroom page to get the syllabus for each course in this series.

A Prepared Classroom

A Prepared Classroom provides teachers with an understanding of:

  • Course descriptions and the Civics End-of-Course Test Item Specifications,
  • How to utilize curriculum and pacing guides,
  • The value of strategic planning and preparing for instruction, and
  • Making informed decisions about instruction based on formative and summative data.
  • (This course has a module that targets primarily civics in Florida but can still be applicable for any teacher!)
A Cognitively Complex Classroom

A Cognitively Complex Classroom provides teachers with an understanding of:

  • The role of cognitive complexity when facilitating instruction and assessment,
  • Utilizing strategies and structures, and
  • Developing learning activities that integrate English Language Arts and disciplinary literacy skills.
A Cohesive Classroom

A Cohesive Classroom provides teachers with an understanding of:

  • identifying the needs of students for scaffolded and differentiated supports aligned with the Universal Design for Learning and,
  • how to develop a responsive civics classroom that builds academic and social-emotional competencies.
A Constitutional Classroom

A Constitutional Classroom will provide teachers with an understanding of:

  • Major ideas in the U.S. Constitution,
  • How to apply disciplinary literacy skills, and
  • Preparing for instruction to make content accessible for all learners.

This last course was actually developed in collaboration with Dr. Charlie Flanagan of NARA’s Center for Legislative Archives and with Bay District Schools!

high-school-us-history-classroom

We now offer a course in what we hope will be a strong and long series for high school US history! The High School US History: The Civil War and Reconstruction Era is, like A Constitutional Classroom in the Civics course series, hosted by our friend Dr. Charles Flanagan from the National Archives’ Center for Legislative Archives and was developed in collaboration with our partners at Bay District Schools. 

The High School US History: Civil War and Reconstruction course will provide teachers with pedagogy, content, and resources for:

  • the major ideas of the cause, course, and consequences of the Civil War and Reconstruction Era
  • primary sources and disciplinary literacy
  • strategies and structures for accessible learning

You can get info to register for the new course and download the syllabus at the course page on Florida Citizen.

But what about you folks in high school US Government? We have a new course for you as well!
high-school-government-classroom

The High School Government Classroom: Building Critical Knowledge course will provide teachers with pedagogy, content, and resources for:

  • lesson planning and preparation in social studies
  • the principles of American democracy
  • the US Constitution
  • Founding Documents
  • Landmark Cases

For Florida teachers, this course is intended to help you prepare students for the new Civic Literacy Assessment. However, it also provides a basic foundation in US government content, pedagogy, and resources and aligns with the newHigh School US Government modules on Civics360! (And there will be a post on the launch of that new resource later!). 

You can get info to register for the course and download the syllabus over at, you guessed it, Florida Citizen.

We hope that you find these new courses beneficial!

Questions? Email Steve!

time again for civic courage

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The day after the 2016 election, I posted a blog entitled “Time for Civic Courage” that seemed to strike a chord; it was shared much more than I’m used to. I mainly wrote it for people like myself– those who would not face much personal risk under Trump but who needed to step up. Compared to our fellow human beings, Americans have more leverage over the US government, and we had to protect them by resisting here. I wrote: “no jokes about moving to Canada. No thoughts about giving up on the nation you belong to, even if its majority and its institutions anger you. No opting out.”

On Election Day 2020, I am cautiously optimistic about the outcome, sharing the conventional view that Biden has roughly a 90% chance of winning, and even a 30% chance of a landslide. But there is certainly a risk of another Trump win. And it is now–not after a loss–when we should pledge Civic Courage. Regardless of what happens, we Americans must keep working and struggling for justice and peace. We’ll need plenty of courage and perseverance even if the election turns out well; and if not–that’s the time to show civic character.

Previewing Changes to Civics360

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Friends, hope this post finds you well on this Election Eve! We have been working hard on improving our resources. In addition to our Civics in Real Life tool, we of course have Civics360. That latter platform has entered a beta stage for relaunch, and I wanted to take a few minutes and show some of the changes coming to Civics360.

The most significant change is to the registration process. Traditionally, teachers and students would register individually, and we asked for emails, names, and all that fun and potentially privacy-problematic stuff. Well, recognizing this, we have moved forward with updating the system to much easier and whole new process.

Teacher Registration

When you access Civics360, you’ll be asked to select an account type. As an educator, you would select that option.

Once you have selected that, enter your the email and password you want to use. You’ll be asked to create a profile.

Enter your information. A new change that should benefit folks not working in a Florida public school: you can now enter your own school!

Once you have completed your initial profile, you will be taken to your own page. Here, finish your profile with some more specifics.

Now, a brand new feature that we are adding: classrooms! You will be able to create your own ‘class’.

Note the code that was created for that class. That’s important! Right now, I have no one enrolled, as you will see below.

I guess I need some students! So I will send them to Civics360, armed with the classroom code I created.

The entire registration process for students has changed significantly! Now, they will get a randomly generated user name, and can create their own password. They should also enter the classroom code you created! You’ll note that it auto-identifies what the class is. So let’s pop back over to the teacher profile!

And I have the first student in my class! With this new approach, the goal is to let you handle registration and password recovery yourself, immediately, as well as tracking student work and having separate class groups.

Now, THIS IS ALL STILL IN THE BETA TESTING PHASE and we are working hard to ensure it is bug free and does everything we need it to do. I do not yet have an estimated launch time, but we are excited to at least give you a preview! The most important change is to the student registration process. We will no longer ask them for ANY information, to better address privacy concerns, and it is now essentially a one click registration for students!

I hope that this preview of what is to come was interesting, and that you will continue to use Civics360 and the other resources that we offer. Questions? Shoot us an email anytime!

The Art of the Legal Hack, as Pioneered by Janelle Orsi

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In our legal system -- designed to protect private property, individual rights, and market exchange – it can actually be very difficult to share things legally. Attorney Janelle Orsi found this out the hard way as she worked with co-housing groups, worker cooperatives, and community gardens. “Our clients kept running up against legal barriers that make no sense: employment laws for co-ops in which people are both employer and employee. Landlord-tenant law for cohousing projects in which people are both landlords and tenants.”

Such frustrations led Orsi to co-found (with Jenny Kassan) the Sustainable Economies Law Center (SELC) in Oakland, California, in late 2009. It has since become a singlular team of venturesome lawyers attempting creative hacks on antiquated laws and regulations.Their clients are not corporations or other deep-pocket moguls, but grassroots groups, cooperatives, and social justice organizations, especially in the Bay Area.

The story of the Sustainable Economies Law Center’s amazing work is the subject of my latest Frontiers of Commoning podcast, Episode #8. Janelle explains some of the innovative legal strategies that the Law Center uses to try to help cooperatives, commons, low-income communities, and Native Americans, among others. (Full disclosure: I am on SELC’s advisory board.)

“The law treats people as atomized, bounded individuals in conflict with each other, in an attempt to keep people separate,” said Orsi. Much of the work at the Law Center is therefore about coming up with ingenious hacks on the law so that people can solve their problems together. The organization describes its theory of change this way: 

“Neither our communities nor our ecosystems are well served by an economic system that incentivizes perpetual growth, wealth concentration, and the exploitation of land and people. Communities everywhere are responding to these converging economic and ecological crises with a grassroots transformation of our economy that is rapidly re-localizing production, reducing resource consumption, and rebuilding the relationships that make our communities thrive."

Over the years, the SELC has advised over 1,500 grassroots groups, and when necessary, initiated policy initiatives to try to change laws and regulations that otherwise impede collective ownership and commoning. For instance, the SELC helped legalize the sale of homemade food in California, and it pushed to change California state law to allow coops to raise capital by selling membership shares. Much of the Law Center’s work attempts to bend existing laws and regulations to serve broader, socially minded purposes in concrete ways.

In its work with coops and nonprofits, the Law Center has used “customized bylaws that you have never seen before,” said Orsi. The idea is to prevent power from becoming concentrated in boards of directors and organizational hierarchies. Instead, Orsi and her team help organizations distribute power among co-workers and spread wealth more equally. The Law Center often advises groups to put a cap on the profits that anyone can extract, and to establish a cap on salaries to avoid egregious inequalities among co-workers.

One pioneering project that the Sustainable Economies Law Center assists is the East Bay Permanent Real Estate Cooperative. The Coop describes itself as “a democratic, People of Color led cooperative that takes land and housing off the speculative market to create permanently affordable, community controlled land and housing. We are turning a racist, classist housing market into a tool that can build wealth for the groups most disenfranchised by it.”

The coop buys real estate properties in Oakland and the East Bay so that people who already live there can stay and build equity, without having to answer to a landlord. The land itself is co-owned and co-stewarded. Since the region already has a ridiculously speculative real estate market, the East Bay Permanent Real Estate Coop has deliberately adopted several legal barriers to prevent coop members from simply cashing out as prices rise. The legal provisions help prevent one generation of coop members from monetizing the hard work of previous members and eliminating affordable housing for future generations. Like so many SELC-advised projects, the Coop is all about project long-term use-value over private ownership.

SELC sometimes uses special bylaw provisions that make it more difficult to sell any real estate, in effect decommodifying the land. Bylaws can also be used to give outside parties a veto over potential asset sales and give board seats to other area nonprofits. Going beyond such legal provisions, the East Bay Permanent Real Estate Cooperative actively cultivates member engagement in the life of the Coop.

Orsi, a self-taught cartoonist on the side, likes to use cartoons to demystify various bodies of law and economics, so that they can use law to serve their own needs. For the East Bay Permanent Real Estate Cooperative, she made a cartoon version of the coop bylaws so that they would be highly readable and easily understood. Check out some of Janelle’s other cartoon-videos, such as “Housing for an Economically Sustainable Future,” which explains a piece of pending legislation to fix things, or “The Legal Roots of Resilience.”

More recently, the Law Center has embarked upon an utterly novel project, the Radical Real Estate Law School. The School is not about strengthening private ownership and dominion over land and buildings, but about helping people live and work in closer relationship with each other, and to encourage stewardship of land in organic, dynamic ways. Recently, the School recruited four activists to join as co-workers/apprentices while learning to become credentialed lawyers. Two apprentices have deep connections to farmland, and two are former tenant organizers.

The word “radical” in the School’s name was chosen with care; it points to “getting to the roots” of  problems. In that regard, the team is working to acquire land so it can be returned to indigenous forms of stewardship and participation, and it is devising legal structures to ensure that land is protected in perpetuity. Among other activist/legal adventures. 

For the fuller story of the Sustainable Law Center and Janelle Orsi’s work, check out the podcast episode here.