democracy’s crisis: a system map

The graphic that accompanies this post shows 16 explanations for democracy’s current crisis for which I think there is persuasive evidence. The arrows indicate significant causal relationships among these factors.

The details are entirely debatable. The main point of this model is to suggest a mode of diagnosis and prescription that is different from the root-cause analysis that often drives movements for political reform.

Imagine, for example, that the root cause of democracy’s dysfunction were economic inequality, driven by a competitive global market. In that case, a political party with a credible plan to combat inequality might represent a solution. The best strategy would be to support that party in elections.

Or imagine that the root cause were partisan polarization. In that case, it would be better to support moderates in the existing parties and promote reforms that would favor centrist candidates.

Or imagine that the cause were the arrogance of progressive elites; then a right-populist movement might be the solution.

I believe that all of these factors (and more) are causes of democracy’s crisis, meaning that there is no “root” cause. Because they are heterogeneous, it is unlikely that any ideological party or movement could address them all. And because they are interlinked, solutions must address many points.

Fortunately, democracy is not a tool meant for a single problem, as a hammer is designed to pound objects that resemble nails. Democracy means “coordinated efforts to solve problems that emerge as we navigate the natural and social world” (Knight & Johnson 2014, p. 20). Democracy requires pluralism and fallibilism about all ideologies and causal theories. Further, democracy is polycentric. We can find it not only in legislative chambers but also on news websites and in community meetings, interactions between agencies and citizens, and in the streets.

We should not hope for any entity, movement, or leader to remove the underlying cause of democracy’s distress so that it can function better. Instead, many people, organizations, and institutions must address the many causes of democracy’s dysfunction.

This would seem an impossibly tall order, except that many are already at work on the various troubles. A map like fig. 1 is meant to orient and motivate diverse actors and activities.

More detail on these factors is here: 16 colliding forces that create our moment. See also: What our nation needs is a broad-based, pro-democracy civic movement;

Ukraine (3): reflections after a long night

I have been here for part of five days–just an instant compared to people who live here. As far as I can tell, Ukrainians are tired but not even remotely interested in quitting.

Air raid alerts sound several times every day. Mostly, these alerts do not result in actual attacks. The Russians send up a MiG to cause an air alert and disrupt everyone’s day.

We are all familiar with disruptions, but it is different to face a hostile state that is trying to maximize inconvenience for years on end. The Russians choose their times and methods for that purpose. My class had to relocate to a bomb shelter while we were doing our introductions on the first day and when the participants were offering their final reflections at the very end. Of course, this was a coincidence (Putin doesn’t know or care about my course), but the point is that anything you try to accomplish is subject to disruption.

And sometimes the threat is real. Last night, there were drone and ballistic missile strikes across the country, including here. On Wednesday night, a local fire chief responded to a drone attack and found his entire family had been killed. These stories add up.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians face the overload of one difficult choice after another. Do I go to the shelter or ride this one out? Do I try to move abroad or stay in the country? I think the emotional toll is substantial. A clinical psychologist told me that “PTSD” is not the appropriate diagnosis, because the “P” stands for “post-.” Here, the trauma continues.

I might also note that there’s a feeling of unreality to it all. This is a country at war. Last night in Kyiv, we had a small but actual battle. If you watch a video like this one from The New York Times, you will see moments and locations around Kyiv where the violence was most dramatic.

Yet most of life continues in a normal way in a large, modern city of about 3 million people. This morning, I could not see evidence of last night’s violence from where I am staying. I don’t think I could hear explosions from the bomb shelter. Normal life—millions of commuters, teenagers clowning around, moms with toddlers in pleasant restaurants—belies the danger.

(The Times‘ video also shows a parking garage very much like the one where I spent last night. There was no dog that I noticed, but there was a very cute baby who was happy enough to be awake most of the night on Mommy’s lap.)

from Ukraine (2): a video on happiness

I made this video in my hotel room in Kyiv last night. I was preparing for the public lecture on the subject of “happiness” that I will give tomorrow. For reasons that I mention at the start of the video, I am a bit anxious about this lecture, and I was rehearsing. However, my conversations here with old friends, new students and colleagues, and even a clinical psychology professor this morning make me think that the topic is urgent and that my conversation-opener might have some value.

(By the way, if you look carefully at the building behind my shoulder, you can see a bricked-in hole on the upper floors, surrounded by dark marks. For all I know, there was a kitchen fire there, or a slow-moving structural problem due to bad construction. But I think it was probably a Russian drone. That shows the impact of part of a Russian drone that hit in May.)

from Ukraine (1)

I am aboard a train from Warsaw to Kyiv, well into Ukrainian territory now. I hope to write something of substance about my week in this country, but my main reflections should wait until I have listened and learned and found the right voice.

I don’t want to pretend to any real knowledge based on a few days in a large country where I cannot even fluently decode the alphabet, let alone study the range of opinion. (I have been here three times before, but always as a brief and superficial observer, which will be the case again this week.)

And I want to find a voice than it not about me, because more than 35 million people live here all the time. Everyone else on this train holds a Ukrainian passport; I saw the whole stack in the arms of the border guard. The people who spend months and years in a war deserve attention, not the guy with the dark-blue passport who can leave when he wants.

I have come in solidarity. That is not a big thing to do; it is a small thing. But it is not nothing, and it seems important right now not to do nothing. Solidarity, plus a desire to learn from activists here, explains my visit.

For the moment, I will just share that a rail journey from Warsaw via Chelm to Kyiv seems haunted. It’s a journey from the site of the Warsaw ghetto, via a town where 60 Jews out of 15,000 survived, to the site of Babi Yar. Our path cuts through the Pale of Settlement, albeit perhaps south of its middle and south of the part of Belarus from which my paternal ancestors escaped in the early 1900s. Trains have rolled back and forth in this region with cargoes of people for mass murder and with soldiers to kill and be killed. (We are currently stopped in Kovel, whose large Jewish community was wiped out, for the most part on the single day of June 28, 1941).

The train that I am riding must have already served the Soviet Union, and the vast majority of the passengers today are women and small children—presumably because most Ukrainian men are not allowed to exit. As we move past farms and through birch-sprinkled woods, the past seems very close.

learning from the Florentine republic

(Florence): En route to Kyiv, I am in Florence for a conference of Americans who work on civic and democratic reform in the USA. It happens that I studied in Florence many decades ago–an experience that helped form my lifelong commitment to republican self-government. I am not truly an expert on the Florentine republic, but I can venture some thoughts about its relevance to our time:

  1. For renaissance Florentines, civility (civiltá) meant the kinds of discourse and behavior that benefited self-governance. To determine what counted as civility, one first asked what the republic needed. Their answer was discourse that was frank, plain-spoken, and direct, in contrast to the talk of courtiers, which was deferential and artificial. For the Renaissance historian Giovanni Cambi, a true citizen was a man who refused to doff his hat or call any one “padrone” (boss), and Cambi named that virtue civiltá. Today, we can also ask which kinds of discourse benefit or harm our republic, and it’s unlikely that “civility” (in this sense) should mean politeness.
  2. The Florentines invented many mechanisms to avoid domination. For instance, they tended to elect slates of potential leaders, and then select the actual officer-holders by lot. To prevent military coups, they hired mercenaries as their generals and banned them from entering the city. Most importantly, the city consisted of hundreds of guilds, enterprises, and vigorously competitive religious orders, making its public sphere vastly “polycentric.”
  3. Republican values inspired one of the world’s greatest cultural movements. The Renaissance means the “rebirth” of classical culture, and Florentines recovered Greco-Roman culture because they saw themselves as republicans in the tradition of their early Roman forebears. In short, they created renaissance art to celebrate self-rule. However, the same cultural innovations that they launched for that purpose could also promote Caesarsism. My group stopped to admire the facade of Santa Maria Novella, which Leon Batista Alberti designed on behalf of his city. But, as Ingrid Rowland notes in a review of a new book by Indra Kagis McEwen, Alberti spent most of his career serving dictators in “Italy’s hothouse courts” outside Florence. These patrons also purported to embody “ancient Roman virtues” — but “no longer the republican virtues heralded by Cicero but virtues adapted to the conditions of empire.” Later, when the Medici smashed the republic and installed themselves as rulers, they continued the fluorescence of renaissance art, but in the interest of monarchy. In short, the republic’s cultural legacy was subject to capture.
  4. The leader of the Medici bank and family for most of the 15th century, Cosimo the Elder, cannily avoided holding any official offices in order to preserve the rules of the republic that benefited him. He ran the city as a political machine. His descendants acted more like rulers, and they provoked a republican movement that was also an anti-Medicean faction. The downfall of the republic was simply its military destruction at the hands of the Medici, who had transmuted economic power into monarchical power. Their wealth was the root cause of the republic’s defeat.

See also: civility as equalitycivic republicanism in medieval Italy: the Lucignano council frescoeswhat does the word civic mean?; the coincidences in Romola

Hannah Arendt: I’m Nothing but a Little Dot

(Cincinnati) In 1947, Hannah Arendt wrote a short poem, “Ich bin ja nur ein kleiner Punkt,” which Samantha Rose Hill accurately and ably translates as “I am just a little point / no more than a spot. …”

I took more liberty to make this translation, imitating Arendt’s strong rhyme-scheme:

I’m nothing but a little dot
No bigger than that black spot,
The beginning of a square.

When I want to expand from there
I start to daub spots everywhere.
My pencil lead (or ink is worse)
Casts on everything my curse.

But--I am nothing but a dot,
Not even a very well-made spot,
Radiant as the start of squares.

I think this is a poem about writing. The middle verse describes someone like Hannah Arendt in the midst of a project, spreading argumentative words in every direction, cursing (or perhaps bewitching) her surroundings with her ideas. But she had started with a single mark. Sometimes she identifies more with that humble first dot than with her whole, ambitious project.

The third stanza almost repeats the first, with the crucial difference that a single geometrical square has become plural, and her little dot (Punkt) “shines” or is “resplendent” (prunkt). It may be humble, but it has potential.

In the original:

Ich bin ja nur ein kleiner Punkt 
nicht grösser als der schwarze 
der dort auf dem Papiere 
als Anfang zum Quadrate.

Wenn ich mich sehr erweitern will,
beginn ich sehr zu klecksen, 
mit Stift und Feder, Blei und Tint 
die Umwelt zu behexen.

Doch bin ich nur ein kleiner Punkt 
nicht einmal gut geraten, 
der auf den Papieren prunkt 
als Anfang zu Quadraten.

German text from What Remains: The Collected Poems of Hannah Arendt (Liveright, 2024), translated by Samantha Rose Hill with Genese Grill. See also: “Complaint,” by Hannah Arendt

Frontiers of Democracy conference 2025

Frontiers of Democracy 2025:  Listening and Leading
June 19 – 21 | Tufts University, Medford, MA

It’s time to register and purchase tickets for Frontiers of Democracy 2025!
 
This summer’s conference will take place June 19 (5:30 pm) to June 21 (12:30 pm), at Tufts University’s campus in Medford, MA.
 
This year’s special theme is “Listening and Leading.” We recognize that crises of democracy can be caused and fueled by division and polarization,and that listening and dialogue may be part of the solution. We thus anticipate rich discussions and constructive disagreements about how we navigate these frontiers of democracy. There will be sessions on other topics also related to Tisch College’s “North Star”: building robust, inclusive democracy for an increasingly multiracial society.
 
This year’s plenary speakers will include Deb RoyRhonda FitzgeraldRita Kiki EdozieJake FayTahira Amatul-WadudJohn SarroufFreddy MutanguhaBeth-Sarah Wright, and several more.
 
Also to look forward to on the agenda:

  • 20 concurrent sessions including panels, workshops, and film screenings.
  • 4 plenary panels.
  • A plenary “hackathon” activity (which will inform a request for funding proposals!).

happiness lecture in Kyiv

I will visit the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) in early June primarily to offer a course on civic engagement that will be a short version of the Summer Institute of Civic Studies that colleagues and I have presented regularly since 2009. While I am in Kyiv, I will also offer a public lecture and discussion on the topic: “How to Think About Happiness.”

This is the blurb from my hosts at KSE:


What is happiness, really? And how should we live a good inner life?

This public lecture will explore how major philosophical traditions have approached the question of happiness — from Aristotle’s idea of purpose, to the Buddha’s path of detachment, to the Skeptical embrace of uncertainty and compassion.

Whether you’re curious about ancient wisdom or modern meaning-making, this event will help you rethink how happiness fits into your own life and civic identity.

After a 30-minute lecture, the audience will be invited to take part in an open discussion.

Why you should attend:

  • Explore timeless and contrasting views on happiness
  • Rethink your inner life through a philosophical lens
  • Engage in a meaningful discussion with a world-class thinker
  • Join either in person or online, wherever you are

Speaker: Professor Peter Levine

  • Senior Professor at Tufts University, currently visiting at Stanford University
  • Former fellow at Harvard and Johns Hopkins Universities
  • Described as “among the leading philosophers of civic life of his generation” (Robert D. Putnam)
  • Civic activist and advisor with experience across the US and Europe

Date: June 6, 6:00 pm
Location: KSE, Rooms 1.08.1 & 1.08.2 and online via Zoom
Register here

Contact person:  Mariia Yurina, myurina@kse.org.ua
Come for the philosophy — leave with a new way to think about happiness.

Civic Engagement course in Kyiv on June 3-5

Thanks to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), I have the opportunity to offer a short version of our Summer Institute of Civic Studies in-person in Kyiv on June 3-5. It is open to people in the vicinity as well as KSE students. I will also offer a public talk on the theme of happiness and will post more about that once the promotional materials are ready. Meanwhile, courtesy of KSE, here is information about the civic engagement course:


Do you want to understand how societies can change for the better—and how you can help lead that change?

This exciting, hands-on course is designed for:

  • Civil society leaders and activists – current and aspiring
  • Students with a passion for politics, ethics, and making a difference

Why attend?

You’ll dive into real-world examples of civic action and gain practical tools to:

  • Organize people around a shared goal
  • Communicate across political divides
  • Respond to exclusion and injustice
  • Learn from global success stories of activism and nonviolence

What’s inside the program?

  • Simulation games like the Prisoner’s Dilemma
  • Case studies of civic movements
  • Discussions on propaganda, polarization, and dialogue
  • Lessons in nonviolent and military resistance
  • Certificate option with short reading assignments

All participants will receive a certificate upon completing the course.

This is not just a lecture—it’s an invitation to think, act, and engage.

Led by one of the world’s most prominent thinkers in civic philosophy:

Professor Peter Levine – Senior Professor at Tufts University, visiting scholar at Stanford, former fellow at Harvard & Johns Hopkins, renowned expert in civic life and democratic engagement

Dates: June 3–5, 3:00–7:00 pm each day

Location: KSE, Room 4.07

Register here

Contact: Mariia Yurina — myurina@kse.org.ua

the historical trend for discretionary federal spending

Until today, I had not understood the trends shown in the graph above (from Aherne, Labonte, & Lynch 2024).

As a proportion of the economy, total federal spending has been fairly constant since 1962. Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and defense keep the whole cost pretty stable. The cost has risen during recessions because bad times increase eligibility for entitlements. This means that the early Reagan years saw a temporary peak in total federal spending (notwithstanding Reagan’s anti-government rhetoric), and the Great Recession and COVID caused big temporary increases.

Meanwhile, federal discretionary spending quite steadily declined from 1965 and 2000. It has fluctuated since then from a lower baseline.

That means that the basket that includes highways and air traffic control, prisons and border control, diplomacy and foreign aid, agricultural subsidies, Food Stamps, etc. represents a smaller percentage of the economy than it did in the 1960s.

Looking more closely at components, we can often find anomalous patterns. For example, total federal spending on education (k12 and college, including financial aid and research) was 1 percent of GDP in 1975 and 1.1 percent in 2024, with spikes during recessions.

Since the economy has grown each decade, a shrinking proportion of GDP could still purchase more goods and services. But that has not really happened during the 21st century. Another telling graph from the same report (below) shows discretionary spending in billions of dollars, adjusted for inflation. It separates defense from non-defense spending. Until COVID hit, neither component had risen (or fallen) in real terms compared to 2005. The Obama stimulus did cause a temporary boost, but that went away. Then COVID spending and the Biden stimulus boosted non-defense spending, which has come down but remains about 25 percent higher than it was in 2019.

These graphs explain why the kinds of public goods that we expect from the national government in the United States often seem to have shrunk or deteriorated, even while the total cost and size of the federal government has remained at least constant.

These data challenge certain assumptions popular among conservatives–that federal spending has risen and that Republican presidents have cut government while in office. (By the way, Elon Musk’s recent rampage will hardly be visible on these graphs when the lines are extended into 2025. Total federal spending rose during the first quarter of 2025.)

These graphs also challenge progressives’ assumptions that government has been shrinking in the era of neoliberalism. Indeed, even discretionary domestic spending is quite a bit higher than it was in 2005 or 2012-19, when adjusted for inflation. What progressives observe is not a shrinking government but a decline in non-defense discretionary spending (as a proportion of the economy) between 1965 and 2000, which has left many national government functions weaker than they were in the mid-1900s.


Source: Aherne, Drew C., Labonte, Marc & Lynch, Megan S., “Discretionary Spending in 10 Graphs” (2024), Congressional Research Service https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48164. See also taxing and spending are more compatible with democratic values than regulation is; how public opinion on social spending has changed: a generational approach